Yin Jianfeng the rapid growth of residents’ debt is the precursor of crisis-kaya scodelario

Yin Jianfeng: the rapid growth of residents’ debt is the precursor of the crisis. Yin Jianfeng, chief economist of Zheshang Bank, Sina Financial News "2016 International Forum on Zhejiang and finance" held in Hangzhou in October 14th. Yin Jianfeng, chief economist of Zheshang Bank, attended and spoke. Yin Jianfeng believes that this year’s economic GDP growth to achieve the goal is not a problem, but the current economic rebound is only "Yangchun", the problem of long-term sustainable growth has not been resolved. For example, technological progress, population aging and so on". In addition, there is no sign of easing in the kinetic energy of economic growth. Yin Jianfeng with "deleveraging" analysis, because of the high leverage of economy crisis has three reasons: first, the leverage ratio rises too fast, exceed the trend value; secondly, the leverage ratio is disposed in the wrong department; thirdly, the rate of increase in leverage accompanied by significant increases in asset prices. From our point of view, the first sector leverage credit resource allocation errors and increasing too fast is the state-owned enterprises — debt financing of state owned enterprises accounted for 70% of non debt financing of state owned enterprises, state-owned enterprises on the contribution of GDP is less than 50%, a smaller contribution to employment. The state-owned enterprise from the asset side, asset return rate is far lower than the state-owned enterprises and non state-owned enterprises, continued to decline, according to the current rate of return on assets of state-owned enterprises, even with debt exchange bonds in the banking market, may not be able to repay their debts. In terms of household debt, growth has been very rapid since last year. This year’s data show that, as of now, more than 50% of the debt financing is the residential sector, the residents of the debt financing object is real estate. Some scholars believe that China’s household sector is a high savings rate, so even if there is a high debt, there will not be a crisis. But Japan, as an example, reminds us of the need to watch out for this phenomenon. As a country with the same high savings rate, one of the most important phenomena before the collapse of the bubble crisis in 90 years is the sudden increase of leverage in the residential sector. To a crisis point of origin, five years before the crisis, Japan’s household sector debt financing growth rate is 46%, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is 44%, Greece is 58%, 45% in Spain, 36% in Italy, these countries are in the household sector leverage in a significant increase in the five years before the crisis. Since World War II, not only the real estate bubble crisis is Germany, Germany in 2009 the European debt crisis five years before the household sector debt is negative 2%. In focusing on China, if the two quarter of 2006 as the basis, from the first quarter of 2007 to the present, the debt of Chinese residents increased by 96%, much higher than the countries above. The reason is that the rapid growth of the debt of the residents is usually the precursor of the crisis. First, compared with the enterprise, the resident sector is the real hard constraint unit in the economy, and the enterprise is a soft constraint. Second, the family is the economic cell, the enterprise is the economic organ, organ broken can repair, and even can be replaced, but the cell is broken is incurable disease. Third, there is a large amount of debt plus leverage in the family sector, one of the most important reasons is the wealth distribution of the residents

殷剑锋:居民负债增速过快是危机的前兆 浙商银行首席经济学家殷剑峰   新浪财经讯 “2016浙商・财经国际论坛”于10月14日在杭州举行。浙商银行首席经济学家殷剑峰出席并演讲。   殷剑锋认为,今年的经济GDP增长达到目标不成问题,但目前的经济反弹只是“小阳春”,关乎长期可持续增长的问题并没有得到解决。“比方说技术进步、人口老龄化等等问题”。此外,在经济增长动能方面的问题也未有缓解迹象。   殷剑锋以“去杠杆”分析,经济体因为杠杆率过高发生危机有三个原因:第一、杠杆率的上升过快,超过趋势值;第二、杠杆率被配置在错误的部门;第三、杠杆率上升伴随着资产价格的显著上涨。而从我国的情况来看,杠杆率信用资源配置错误以及上升过快的第一部门就是国有企业――国有企业债务融资占到非国有企业债务融资的70%,而国有企业对GDP的贡献小于50%,对就业的贡献更小。从国有企业的资产端来看,国有企业资产收益率远远低于非国有企业,并且持续下滑,按照目前国有企业资产收益率来看,即使是用债务置换,在银行市场发债,可能难以偿还债务的本息。   在居民负债方面,自去年以来,增幅非常快。今年的数据显示,截止到目前,50%以上的债务融资是居民部门,居民部门债务融资的对象就是房地产。有部分学者认为,中国居民部门是高储蓄率的,因此即使有高债务也不会发生危机。但其以日本为例,提醒需要警惕这一现象。   作为同样的高储蓄率国家,日本在90年泡沫危机破灭前的一个重要现象就是居民部门突然加杠杆。以发生危机时点为原点,在危机爆发前五年,日本居民部门的债务融资增速是46%,美国次贷危机前是44%,希腊是58%,西班牙是45%,意大利是36%,这些国家在危机前五年居民部门都在显著加杠杆。二战以来唯一没有发生过房地产泡沫危机的就是德国,德国在2009年欧债危机前五年居民部门的负债是负2%。   在聚焦中国,如果以2006年二季度为基点,从2007年一季度到现在,中国居民的负债上升幅度为96%,比上述国家要高很多。   之所以认为“居民部门负债增速过快通常是危机前兆”的原因是,第一,和企业相比,居民部门是经济中的真正硬约束单位,而企业都是软约束的。第二,家庭是经济的细胞,企业是经济的器官,器官坏了可以修补甚至可以更换,但细胞坏了就是不治之症。第三,家庭部门之所以出现大量的负债+杠杆,其中一个最重要的原因是居民部门的财富分配不平等要大于收入分配的不平等,大于住房消费的不平等,也就是说居民部门负债的过程实际上是财富和收入分配的差异化,同时住房消费却出现了均等化现象。“这一点在美国次贷危机前非常清楚,低收入家庭住房消费投资的速度远远快于高收入家庭,低收入家庭次贷危机前收入的增速却没有比高收入家庭高,甚至出现负增长”。   “大家可以想象一下,随着信贷资源向中低家庭配置,一旦出现失业等现象,势必就会导致违约,一违约就会从低收入家庭向中等收入中等家庭传染,形成链条破裂的危机”,殷剑锋称,“这是非常令人警醒的信号,我认为对于中国来说,短期的小阳春不值得过于乐观,更重要关注风险”。   新浪声明:所有会议实录均为现场速记整理,未经演讲者审阅,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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