Bankers see open economy smell the hint of caution in the recovery.

Bankers see open economy: smell the hint of caution in the recovery of the economy: "our bankers taste smell the taste of a revival in the cautious" – Xinhua News Agency reporter Pan Ye Yao Yujie Lu ang 2016 is "13th Five-Year" at the beginning of the year is the supply side structural reform element, some structural contradictions inevitably through the structure of bank assets and reflect the quality of out. "We should not underestimate the difficulties and challenges in 2016, standing at the beginning of 2016 the economy, bankers feel complex — the real economy is the body, finance is the blood, the change of the economic environment will promote the adaptability adjustment of large financial institutions of various types of bank etc.. The surveyed bankers said that at present Chinese economy has entered into a difficult period, but from the start of the year the economic situation is grim in the possession of the bank, a breath of warmth. "The banking industry is a" good start ", from the end of December each year to the first quarter of next year to start late, to ensure a good start, the bank will prepare the project ‘DaTouZhen in this period.". But in January this year, estimates down in no more than 12 billion yuan of credit, small and micro consumption of large projects and large enterprises of retail credit ratio is "half open", large projects rely on loans in the table business support in the fall, the bank estimates, consumer credit spreads are larger and more stable. Since January this year, the entire bank market credit exceeded expectations, we started this year also more active." "From the credit point of view, in the cautious, we slowly smell a recovery, and confidence is gradually recovering," said Nanjing bank vice governor Deng nong." But the real economy has a process of recovery. Small boat U-turn, in an interview with reporters learned that some early transition, to complete banks generally optimistic, but some rely on extensive expansion, excessive dependence on spreads, highly homogeneous banks face huge loans out of pressure; part of the commercial banks "scale complex", "speed complex" it is difficult to give up. Overall, the profitability of China’s banking sector has deteriorated. Many bankers said that the current real economy to capacity, to inventory has just begun, the amount of debt to the bank accounted for a large, in the clearing process of the impact on the bank in the end how much, we dare not blindly optimistic. Bank chairman Niu Ximing said in 2015, "the real economy, the commercial banks to credit a cold", "357" effect (i.e. credit after delivery, three years, five years, the risk of the outbreak of bad seven years large losses), the deposit interest rate cap completely liberalized, Internet financial and other A new force suddenly rises. under the influence of multiple factors superimposed, the profitability of banks obviously under pressure. In 2016, the bank assets quality pressure is not small, the profit growth is more difficult, the reform and development task is still heavy. At present, the judgment of "economic L" has gradually become the mainstream understanding of bankers. "Economic L shape, everyone is watching inflection point."". In recent years, the banking industry is facing a cold winter, especially since last year, the bank profits from two figures down to single digit, or even negative growth, this is the commercial banks did not pay attention to this structure corresponding to the pressure caused by the economic transformation, such as the theory

银行家开年看经济:在谨慎中闻到一丝复苏的味道   银行家开年看经济:“在谨慎中闻到一丝复苏的味道”   □新华社记者 潘晔 姚玉洁 吕昂   2016年是“十三五”开局之年也是供给侧结构性改革元年,一些结构性矛盾不可避免的通过银行资产结构和质量反映出来。   “我们不宜低估2016年的困难和挑战”,站在2016年初看经济,银行家们心情复杂――实体经济是肌体,金融是血液,经济环境的改变必将促进银行等各类金融机构进行力度较大的适应性调整。受访银行家们表示,目前中国经济确实进入了一个困难时期,但从开年经济形势的银行端看,严峻中藏有一息暖意。   “银行业有一个‘开门红’的说法,从每年12月底启动到次年一季度末,为确保有一个好的开局,银行在这段时期都会准备大项目‘打头阵’。但今年1月测算下来,在不超过120亿元的信贷投放中,小微消费零售与大企业大项目的信贷投放比例是‘对半开’,大项目对依赖表内贷款业务支撑在下降,经我行测算,消费信贷方面利差较大、较稳定。今年1月以来,整个银行市场信贷投放超出预期,我们今年开局投放也更积极一些。”   南京银行副行长束行农说:“从信贷投放来看,在谨慎中我们慢慢闻到一丝复苏的味道,信心在逐步恢复。”束行农说,但实体经济回升还有一个过程。   “船小好调头”,采访中记者了解到,一些转型早、转彻底的银行普遍表示乐观,但一些依赖粗放式扩张、过度依赖息差、高度同质化的银行,面临巨大的贷款挤出压力;部分商业银行的“规模情结”、“速度情结”仍难以割舍。整体来看,中国银行业的盈利状况有所恶化。   不少银行家表示,目前实体经济去产能、去库存刚刚开始,存量债务对银行来说占比很大,在出清过程中对银行冲击到底有多大,大家还不敢盲目乐观。交通银行董事长牛锡明说,2015年“实体经济受寒、商业银行感冒”,信贷投放“357”效应(即信贷大投放后,三年出现不良、五年风险爆发、七年大量损失)、存款利率上限彻底放开、互联网金融异军突起等多重因素叠加影响下,银行盈利明显承压。2016年银行资产质量压力不小,利润增长困难较多,改革发展任务依然较重。   当前“经济L形”的判断已逐步成为银行家主流认识。“经济L形,大家都在观望拐点”。束行农说,近几年银行业面临寒冬,特别是去年开始,银行盈利从两位数降到个位数,甚至负增长,这是商业银行没有重视到这种结构对应这种经济转型带来的压力,如果未来仍以间接融资作为业务发展模式,以利差作为利润重点,银行背的包袱就会越来越重。   “经济‘L形’何时迎来拐点,取决于改革转型和结构调整进展,这是一场改革和风险的赛跑。”银行家们坦言,过往的经济发展模式和银行经营模式渐趋式微,2016年总体上仍属筑底期,要两到三年才可能走出低迷。但新的商业模式正在孕育,而问题和矛盾的存在也为银行未来的发展提供了动力和机遇。   “当前,中国经济仍然是机遇大于挑战。只要宏观调控措施得当,牢牢抓住机遇推进经济结构调整,我国经济一定会稳中向好。”交通银行董事长牛锡明说,宏观经济环境新形势和去产能过程正在倒逼市场参与者加大创新的投入和技术的提升,推动产业和产能的升级换代;尽管工业增加值增速可能低于GDP增速,但工业产业内部结构加速调整,新的工业增长点正在形成;增长动能从投资向消费转变,服务业保持较快增长,具有更强的纳税和就业创造能力。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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